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So, Sarah Palin resigned.  Watching the press conference, she sounded more uncomfortable than in the Katie Couric interview.  I think she’s really made a monumental error.  Her resume now reads as follows:

• Hockey Mom
• Mayor of a small town for a short period of time.
• Governor of the least populous state for a short period of time.
• Vice Presidential candidate on a losing ticket.

Pretty darn impressive, huh?

If she had stuck it out in Alaska, she could have built a reputation as an executive.  Now her claim to fame is for being a loser and a quitter.

I feel like this is really disengenuous.  She’s not resigning because she wants to spare Alaska a bad governor, she wants to have more free time for her PAC.  She wants to build support in the lower 48 so she can try to make a run in 2012.  Unfortunately, she’s unelectable.  She could possibly get the nomination, but she’d lose pretty miserably in the general election.

If I were a Republican, I’d support anyone but her.  She’s toxic right now.  She claims she doesn’t represent “politics as usual” but it is amazing how fast she took to Washington dinners.  Lucky for her mavericky self, she’s going to have a lot more free time to hob nob with the Washington elites she so despises.

I swear, her addiction to the lime light will be her undoing.  Honestly, this is like watching a train wreck happen in slow motion.

-Eddy

In 2006, I predicted that the 2008 presidential race would be between Obama and McCain and Obama would win.  This was before anyone had even declared they were running.  And, to top it off, I did it in Spanish… it was my presentation in Spanish 103.  Now, I’m going to try and do it again:

Unless Mike Huckabee has a huge scandal or dies, he will be the Republican nominee in 2012.

There are a lot of other prominant Republicans that will run.  But none of them can beat Huckabee in a Republican primary.  Here are some possible Republican candidates and a short explination of why they won’t win:

• Sarah Palin - Governor of Alaska: her popularity has dropped like a rock and she still needs to learn to talk like a grown up.  I think 2012 will require more substance than she can muster.
• Tim Pawlenty - Governor of Minnesota: while he is a good Republican as far as anyone can tell, he doesn’t have the clout that a lot of the others do.  Which Republican, outside of Minnesota, would pick Pawlenty over some of the other candidates?  I don’t see that happening for most people.
• Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts: The Republican Party has shrunk a lot.  Is there room for a fairly liberal Republican governor who just so happens to be Mormon?  I kind of doubt it.
• Newt Gingrich - Former Speaker of the House: the voice alone makes people cringe.  He is a good Republican, but I don’t think anyone has ever considered him REALLY presidential material.
• Rudy Guiliani - Former Mayor of New York City: too many personal problems and he’s too liberal on abortion and gay rights.
• Charlie Crist - Governor of Florida: I know this may seem trite, but I question his work ethic.  I don’t know that he has what it takes to stay in for the long haul.  And more than any other person on this list, he looks the most like a slick politician.  Slick politicians don’t get elected President very often.
• Bobby Jindal - Governor of Louisiana: Most people are thinking “who the hell is Bobby Jindal?”  He’s now famous for his horrible response to the Presidential Address.  He may be Secretary of something in a future Republican administration, but every Democrat would be thanking their lucky stars if he is the nominee.  He’s about as inspiring as Cream of Wheat.
• Ron Paul - Representative from Texas: Too crazy.
• Fred Thompson - Former Senator from Tennesee: Too lazy.

Now, here’s why Huckabee can beat all these guys:

• He’s Southern.  When was the last time the Republicans had a nominee that wasn’t Southern or thought he was?
• He’s on the right side on EVERY key issue:  He’s unabashedly pro-life, pro-gun and against same sex marriage.  In the more conservative Republican Party, these are KEY to winning.
• He’s popular!  Everyone likes Huckabee.  I disagree with probably 90% of his political positions but I can’t help but like the guy!
• He’s on TV.  His show on Fox News is a GREAT platform for him to get his name out there.  I honestly think he would have won the nomination in 2008 is more people had heard of him early.
• He’s laying low.  Considering he has a television show, the guy is very low key in the media.  I haven’t heard anything bad about Huckabee.

In my mind, it’s his nomination to lose.  I think his biggest weakness is his gaffes.  On the campaign trail last year he had some doozies but I’m sure he’ll come out more polished in 2012.

Of course I could be wrong.  It could be this guy.

-Eddy

I was going to write about Huckabee, but instead I’m going to write on torture.  The mere fact that I’m having to talk about American torture policy is infuriating, but I’ll try to make keep this short:

I believe the Bush administration knew what they were doing was torture.  I believe they knew what they were doing was illegal according to international law.  I believe they were informed several times that the methods were either ineffective or not worth the risk.  I also believe that the key people in the administration just didn’t give a shit.  Why?  Not because they wanted to keep America safe.  They are morally bankrupt people.  They are people that, in every instance, the ends justify the means. 

While they ran around breaking every known moral boundary in modern society, the nation was gripped with fear and constantly told that the terrorists were beating down the door.  If we didn’t stay hyper-vigilant and, most importantly, in a state of constant fear, the terrorists would annihilate us all.

And to stem anyone off at the pass; to say Bush kept us safe from terrorists since 9/11 is like saying to me “since the last time we were attacked, we haven’t been attacked.”

Sit back and let the stupid soak in.

But let’s run with the argument; we haven’t had another attack on US soil since 9/11.  But what have we lost?  Our national psyche has been warped into something that brings us several step closer to jingoism, militarism and outright xenophobia.  I would rather worry about terrorists than militarism.

We cannot destroy our most important beliefs because of fear of the unknown.  Civil liberties are real.  The Constitution is not just a piece of paper.  We can fight our enemies without stooping to their level.  We don’t need to fight like savages to beat savages.  We don’t need to terrorize to beat terrorists.

We have to win our way, the American way.  We fight hard, but when the fighting is over, you treat the enemy like human beings.  We can make up any rationalization we like but the fact is America is better than what we’ve done.

I hope there is an investigation and I hope they make everything public so we know just what our government did in our name.  Hopefully it will keep us from making that mistake again.

-Eddy

I suppose for now, in Congress, they are.  But to say Republicans are a regional party is very premature.  Right now there are 22 Republican governors.  If you look at the map, There isn’t really one region these governors are in.  They are in the South West, the Old South and the Northern Plains but there are also three in New England.  And Hawaii has a Republican governor.  That one shocked me more than anywhere else.

The reason I bring up governors is because they pretty much always rebuild the party.  If you think about it, it kind of makes sense.  Governors are already executives, so it seems a natural transition.  And if you look at the current field of Republican “front runners” all of them are governors: Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Pawlenty.

Getty Images

If the Republicans can adapt or if Obama makes some sort of massive mistake, Republicans will be right back in the mix by the next major election.  I think people don’t realize how long four years can be.  Even two is an eternity in politics.  And, regardless of anyone’s personal feelings about the Tea Parties, they show that the conservative base is angry and active.

I think liberals should be cautious at best about there new found majority.  There are a lot of cracks to be worked out before this coalition really gels.  To be frank, there are some very conservative members of the Democratic party in Congress.  And they come from states that could turn red again if they see “socialist Pelosi” taking the country too far left.

I have openly wondered if Obama is doing too much too fast.  There are two things that stick out in my mind as having the potential to majorly backfire.  First is the assault weapons ban.  The NRA is a very active voice in politics.  Pissing them off seems like a bad idea.  Second is closing Guantanamo, etc.  It sickens me but Republicans are already hedging there bets and practically betting on another terrorist attack.  That is politics at its worst.  But if it does happen, this Democratic majority will evaporate all while Republicans are shouting “I told you so!” all the way to the Oval Office.

So, to my liberal friends, stay cautiously optimistic and never dismiss the power of the conservative base.  The Republicans have been knocked for a loop and will take some time to recover, but they will be back before you’d expect.  Enjoy this honey moon while it lasts.

-Eddy